Daily Reports
Mon
Holiday in UK & US
Tue
Nothing to report
Wed
Earnings results:
IPX – Disappointing results, revenue down YOY. AUM up 5.9% to £39.6B however all due to market movement, with a net outflow of £2.7B. Underperforming against other asset managers such as POLR. Big drop today, down 10% as I write. This is a problem stock for me, it passed my previous checklist, though scores poorly on the new one. I’m sat at a big loss due to poor entry in the past and no stop loss. Now have a stop at 426p which would be a -33% loss. Great to know that I won’t ever be in this situation again if I follow my rules.
Any major news:
Don’t think I’d class it as major news, but the markets are tanking today because the five year treasury yields rose to a four week high. Amazing how jittery the market is.
Thur
Trades:
IPX – Sold when it hit my stop at 426p, actually got 421p. Quite happy to be out of this one, even with a big loss. It didn’t fit with my current strategy and my entries were poor, first one in April 2022. Collected dividends for all that time which reduced losses a bit but still a 30% loss (-£1,295). It’s no way near on checklist at the moment, so not even on watch list for now.
Thinking whether I could have sold sooner, but I did think results may have been good, as POLR & LIO have both had better results and have seen share prices rising. Probably could have sold early in the day when I knew results were poor, though not going to beat myself up. Take the loss, move on & don’t get in that position again.
Earnings results:
ULTA – Disappointing results. Rev only up 3%, EPS down 6%. Minimal growth in store openings & same store sales growth. Also reduced FY guidance slightly. Score of 24 on checklist. Will keep an eye on but ELF & W7L are far better plays in the beauty sector for now.
VEEV – Decent results with rev up 24% & EPS up 21%. However forward guidance was lower than expected. Still scores a 34 on the checklist. Certainly worth keeping an eye on as I’ve owned in the past & have a good understanding of the stock.
Any major news:
US GDP only 1.3% vs expected 1.6% QoQ
Fri
Any major news:
Trump found guilty on all counts in the hush money trial. Not sure this will actually have any affect on his campaign, can’t see him doing prison time.
US YoY PCE price index is 2.7%, in line with expectations. I think in line is good at this stage. Writing this before market open & the futures are green, so looks like the market likes the news.
Weekly Wrap
Trades made:
Impax Asset Management (IPX) – Sell 660 @ 420p for -30.5%
Best themes & subsectors. General market trend:
UK markets have turned upward for the last couple of days. After a two week decline. The AIM market continues to look strong. The US markets have basically gone sideways this week, there’s no definite trend at the moment, though still in long term uptrends. Certainly a little indecision in the markets recently.
In terms of themes, Tech continues to go sideways with a few sub sectors such as cyber security falling through 150MA. Healthcare maintains sideways action, which explains the so so performance of RMD & REGN. I have a lot of healthcare stocks on the watchlist, so looking for this to return to an up trend. Held off on buying ISRG this week due to weakness in this sector. The financials theme is looking strong at the moment, with all sub sectors in a strong up trend. I don’t have many US financial stocks on the watchlist so need to try and find some more. Wind & Solar continue to look strong, haven’t found any stocks yet, continue looking.
Thoughts on strategy, anything else:
A quiet week, few earnings and only one trade which was a sell. META & MSFT are showing some weakness, neither are in danger of hitting their stop just yet, but definitly lost some of their bullish momentum. I think they’re just taking a breather and will stick with my stop loss strategy. It will be worth looking back to this point in the future though to see what the correct call was, as it is tempting to sell them right now. The next set of earnings will be huge for them both.
All the buys I made last week have continued higher which is great. I’m feeling very confident with my strategy right now.
Looking To Next Week
Stocks setting up the best:
UK:
SOLI – Still sitting just above its breakout. Two options for entry. 1, enter if it makes new high with volume. 2, it fails breakout, falls back & play as normal if it breaks out again.
SUP – this was a failed breakout, it’s gone back below resistance. It didn’t have volume on initial breakout which was a sign of weakness. Enter if it breaks out with volume, RSI & MA are set up well.
AQX – I didn’t have this on the list last week, however I’ve researched the company now so have a better understanding. Had a huge run up after great earnings and has been in a tight sideways range. Wait for breakout with volume. It is very extended so I don’t expect it to come for a while, but keep an eye on just in case.
GMR – Continued sideways last week, wait for new high with volume. Perfect entry would have been on 9th May, but hadn’t found stock then.
JNEO – Unlikley it will happen this week, but not far from resistance.
US:
SHOO – Right up against resistance, set up perfectly for phase 2 continuation.
BRBR – 2 months sideways action, trending towards upper level for phase 2 continuation.
POWL – It had declining volume when it broke through horizontal resistance I mentioned last week, so didn’t enter. This was the correct move as it has fallen back sharply. Will consider entry if it breaks through same level with high volume.
LRCX – Fell away from level last week, however still not far away. Setting up nicely for a breakout & phase 2 continuation.
MU – Short sideways action, would like to see it go sideway for longer, but enter if it breaks with volume.
Upcoming earnings:
UK – BOWL
USA – LULU
Any news events:
Monday – UK & US manufacturing PMI
Wednesday – UK Composite & services PMI. US services PMI
Thursday – UK Construction PMI
Friday – US unemployment rate
Game plan:
Looks to be quite a quiet week. Stick to strategy & research companies on my watchlist that I don’t know enough about. Be strict with stops, there’s a few UK holdings that aren’t far off, don’t hesitate to cut if they hit, trust the strategy. Look for new stocks in rising sectors like Financials & Solar / Wind power.