Daily Reports
Tue
Earnings results:
Wise (WISE) Q1 results – 34/50. Active customers up 26% YoY to 8.4m. Volumes increased 18% YoY to £33.2B. Underlying income grew 22% YoY to £325.4m, with continuing growth in deposit balances (23% YoY) and strong card and other revenue growth (55% YoY). Continuing to expect strong growth in FY25 with underlying income expected to grow 15-20% over FY24.
Transense Technologies (TRT) Trading update – 34/50. Solid ahead of expectations update. Revenue increased 18% YoY to £4.2m. “Adjusted EBITDA for the year is expected to be around £1.7m; an increase of 21% on prior year… both of which are slightly above market expectations.”
Any major news:
US core retail sales was 0.4% MoM vs forecast of 0.1%, looking quite strong. The previous reading was 0.1% so it is growing in strength.
Wed
Any major news:
UK CPI is 2% YoY vs forecast of 1.9%. Not too bad.
Thu
Trades:
Buy Transense Technologies (TRT) – 1700 @ 149p (£2,500). Only a half position as it is a very small market cap stock (£22m) and as such quite illiquid with a large spread. It also doesn’t quite pass my checklist with a 34/50. However I’m very US concentrated at the moment & would like a few more UK stocks, so if the set up is strong I’m going to take the occasional stock that doesn’t quite hit the 36 number. Only if it’s in the 30’s though.
This was a stong set up with a break through resistance on strong volume, following a good trading update. No overhead resistance for over 100%. I didn’t enter yesterday, when the break occurred, due to it not passing my checklist. Obviously I’ve changed my mind today.
Earnings results:
AJBell (AJB) trading update – 36/50. Decent update, with strong net growth in AUA. Customer numbers increased by 25,000 in the quarter to close at 528,000, up 13% in the last year and 5% in the quarter. Assets under administration (“AUA”) closed at £83.7 billion, up 20% over the last year and 4% in the quarter. Gross inflows in the quarter of £3.7 billion (2023: £2.4 billion). Net inflows in the quarter of £1.7 billion (2023: £1.1 billion)
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q2 24 – 28/50. Continuing their steady growth. No longer passes checklist due to declining forward EPS, though I will continue to hold until the up trend stops. Up 8% on the day. Revenue up 14% to $2,010, EPS up 24% to $1.46. Worldwide da Vinci procedures grew 17% YoY & total da Vinci systems installed increased 14% YoY to 9,203.
Netflix (NFLX) Q2 24 – 34/50. Decent update, though not enough to go on watchlist. I do like the business though. Rev up 17% to $9,559m, EPS up 48% to $4.88. Upgraded FY expectations. 16.5% YoY growth in membership numbers. Operating margin expansion from 22% to 27%.
Karooooo (KARO) Q1 25 – 32/50. A stock I’ve only recently started looking at. Impressive growth & geographical diversification. One I’ll be keeping an eye on for earnings re-acceleration & a break above it’s IPO price. Revenue up 9% to ZAR 1,1082m, EPS up 41% to ZAR 7.17. Cartrack subscribers grew 17% YoY to 2,047,442, with guidance for 2.2-2.4m subs by the end of the year. Solid growth in all regions with high hopes for SE Asia.
Fri
Any major news:
UK core retail sales were -1.5% vs forecasts of -0.5%, not a great reading and down massively from the previous reading of +2.9%. Looks like consumers aren’t spending much in the UK.
Huge global outage of windows operating systems for customers that run CrowdStrike software. CrowdStrike put out an update for Windows OS’ and it bricked thousands of systems. Planes were grounded, hospitals disrupted, some supermarkets couldn’t take payments. The media were making it out to be a huge deal in the AM, but it seams it’s not as bad as first made out. Does make you think how exposed to the digital world we are though.
Weekly wrap
Trades made:
Buys
Transense Technologies (TRT) – 1700 @ 149p (£2,500)
Best themes & subsectors. General market trend:
The US markets took a huge dive this week, mainly the large cap tech stocks, with a rotation into small caps. I actually predicted this in my last journal update, so I’m quite pleased with that. Frustratingly this gave back pretty much all my gains for the month, which was going well until this point. Oh well, it’s never a straight line. I don’t think I did anything wrong, most of my holdings are no way near their stops, it’s just natural market gyration.
The UK markets remain sideways generally, with a bit of positivity in the small cap space.
Looking to next week
Stocks setting up the best:
UK:
Ashtead Technology (AT.) – Pushing back up to overhead resistance, could be setting up for a phase 2 continuation. Be cautious though as could be putting in a double top before the start of a phase 4 decline.
Aquis Technology (AQX) – Have been watching this for a while, in a very tight trading range. It broke through on Friday, however it had very low volume. Look to jump in if large volume comes in Monday morning. If no volume comes then sit it out.
Auto Trader (AUTO) – Continuing it’s sideways action, now also has the 50MA for support. Just watch to see if it breaks with volume.
US:
Steven Madden (SHOO) – I sound like a broken record, but this one continues along just under resistance. As I’ve said previously I think it will need good earnings to break through.
Comfort Systems (FIX) – Earnings on Thursday, likely to break through resistance I think if they are strong.
Upcoming earnings:
US earnings season comes in to full force this week with over 20 US stocks I’m following reporting. Not to mention UK stock news that will appear un-announced. I won’t list them all here, but important ones for me are:
Mon:
Medpace Holding (MEDP)
Tue:
Google (GOOGL)
Thu:
Appfolio (APPF)
Comfort Systems (FIX)
Deckers Outdoors (DECK)
Upcoming news events:
Wed:
PMI numbers for both Uk & USA manufacturing & services. Both important to guage how the economy is doing.
Thu:
US GDP numbers
Game plan:
It’s the start of US earnings season this week. Simply try and keep up with all of the results and update checklist scores & watchlist diary. Important not to miss any results as they could be the catalyst for a run in the stock price, which I definitely don’t want to miss. Play around with using ChatGPT to analyse results to see if I can save any time. Though be 100% sure it’s giving accurate results & not missing anything important.