Daily Reports
Mon
Trades:
Sell Hollywood Bowl (BOWL) (while away 13/06/24) 627 @ 308p, -3.7% – Hit a hard stop loss I set before going away. Has since bounced back above, though not looking particularly strong. No way near passing new checklist.
Sell WISE 397 @ 689p, -20.8% – Gapped down on earnings while away. Unfortunately I hadn’t set a stop as I thought it was safe for a week, lesson learnt. Sold on first day back, for more of a loss than it should have been, though still would have been more than 10% with the gap.
Buy Lam Research (LRCX) 6 @ $1,041 – Perfect break out while away, rising RSI, MA & with 1.5x volume. For the next few days it formed a tight range then broke above this range on Monday. I decided to enter here, only sacrificing 1-2% to entering on the initial break. Stop at $934.
Earnings results:
SOM – In line trading update, saying the non-residential construction market remained consistent. Not in the public portfolio as doesn’t come close to passing checklist, though a stock I have held for many years. Happy with this update.
Tue
Earnings results:
TEP – Full year results. Not a great set of results with revenue down 18% YoY & projected to be down another 4% next year. To be fair underlying growth is alright with customer growth of 14.1% & increase in total service numbers of 11.8%. No longer passes checklist though (32/50), so bumped to keep an eye on for now. Down 7% since results.
IGP – Another stock that isn’t in the public portfolio but I have owned for years. Very close to passing checklist after these results with a score of 34/50. FY rev up 65%, EPS up 336%. A stellar year for the company with several large new contracts. They make a point that their largest of £6m is likely a one off, so they are projecting a 20% decline in rev & 60% decline in EPS next year. I believe however that they will get some large contracts this year as well, as they clearly have a great product and traction seems to be improving. A bit of a gamble as if they don’t the share price would likely crash.
Wed
Earnings results:
GAW – A stock I keep an eye on, score currently only 28/50. FY TU, ahead on revenue but in line on profit I think, wasn’t entirely clear. Rev expected to be £520m vs expectation of £494m. Getting very close to a break out level, though I won’t buy unless it passes checklist.
Any major news:
UK YoY CPI in line with forecasts at 2%, meeting the long term target of 2% inflation. This should, I would have thought lead to rate cuts & a catalyst for stock market growth. Expect green in the UK markets today.
Thur
Trades:
Buy Super Micro Computer (SMCI) 6 @ $992 – In hindsight I was a bit keen here. I should have waited for a break of the upper, near by level. However it did pass my rules, just quite a volatile stock & they won’t all work out. Broke previous high level with 2x volume & positive RSI. Though fell back hard on the same day.
Any major news:
BoE interest rate decision was to hold at 5.25%. People are expecting a cut in the Autumn. I don’t see why we wouldn’t with inflation now down at the target. Hopefully this will be a catalyst for the markets for the end of the year.
Fri
Trades:
Sell Super Micro Computer (SMCI) 6 @ $876, -12.9% – As mentioned this didn’t work out. Sold the next day as it hit my stop. This may be a trade that works out if I gave it more room & I usually wait until end of day before selling to see if it bounces back. However the market was very volatile on this day with some large declines & I didn’t want to risk a further 5% decline. Had more than 10% loss due to fast movement & trading fees. May need to consider 8% stops to give the end result of a 10% loss.
Sell NVDA 70 @ $127.8, +71% – Time will tell if this was the correct move, but I feel good about it, so that’s all that matters I think. It wasn’t anyway near my stop, though made the decision to sell for a few reasons. One, it is super extended. Two, it had a very large bearish engulfing candle the prior day. Looking back this has more often than not meant the start of a correction. Three, having read many books there is a theme that when every man & there dog knows about a stock it’s probably about to peak. I am hearing everyone talking about this stock, a mate of mine who knows nothing about stocks asked me if I owned it while on holiday. Four, I didn’t want to give the rapid gains of the past month or so back. It will now likely go on another run, but I’m OK with that, I can re-enter with another good set up.
Any major news:
UK Core retail sales up 1.2% YoY, beating forecast of -0.8%. A huge beat. UK manufacturing PMI ahead of forecast, Services PMI below forecast.
US Manufacturing & Services PMI both ahead of forecast,
Weekly wrap
Trades made:
Buys:
Lam Research (LRCX) – 6 @ $1,041 (£4,969)
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) – 6 @ $992 (£4,732)
Sells:
Hollywood Bowl (BOWL) – (while away 13/06/24) 627 @ 308p, -3.7% (-£73)
WISE – 397 @ 689p, -20.8% (-£716)
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) – 6 @ $876, -12.9% (-£611)
Nvidia (NVDA) – 70 @ $127.8, +71% (+£2,912)
Best themes & subsectors. General market trend:
UK AIM market continues it’s down leg, an area of support near by though so this may turn this week. Larger UK indices continuing sideways, not looking great in UK right now.
US indicies continue upwards, looking strong on the chart. Though there was some weakness at the end of last week. Monday will be a big day to see what direction they go.
Thoughts on strategy, anything else:
Lesson learnt to set hard stops for all my stocks before I go away, not just the ones that are close. As seen with WISE, there can always be a big gap down.
Time will tell regarding my Nvidia sale, though this will be something to look back on and analyse. I’m torn between locking in decent gains and allowing a stock the space to move for a much larger gain.
Looking to next week
Stocks setting up the best:
UK:
SOLI & SUP – continue in their tight sideways channels. Keep watching & waiting.
AQX – setting up very nicely with a very tight trading range.
AUTO – Had a big move up on earnings & has been taking a breather. Forming a nice sideways channel. Would like to see this continue for another couple of weeks, but an entry opportunity if it comes sooner.
GMR – Broke out of long term resistance a few weeks ago but hasn’t gone anywhere. Formed a new trading range sitting on top of previous. Wait for a break out of new range.
US:
SHOO – up against resistance, failed to break out a couple of weeks ago, building strength.
BRBR – Continues in a sideways channel. I think it will hold in there until earnings, though keep an eye on.
FIX – Setting up for a continuation move
MEDP – Forming a really nice tight trading channel. Just wait for the break out.
NVO – Broke out a couple of weeks ago, but with no volume so I didn’t enter. Hasn’t really gone anywhere. Consider an entry if it tests support and rises on high volume.
CRWD – Missed entry while in Portugal, though on Friday it pulled back to support and rose higher again on it’s highest ever volume. If it continues higher I think Monday would make a good entry.
Upcoming earnings:
Wed – Micron technology
Thursday – Nike
Game plan:
Continue doing what I’m doing. Keep an eye on the US markets for a correction, the end of last week felt like that could be on the cards. Be wary of new entries until sure.