Daily Reports
Mon
Earnings results:
BOWL – A beat on expectations, though still quite slow growth. UK like for like growth only 1.3%, so effectively negative with inflation. Canada growing well though at 46.9%, including acquisition of two new centres & build of another new one. Reasonable results, though I can’t see it being a catalyst for the share price. I own from previous checklist, think I’ll wait for strength & then sell, unless some better news comes out. Or of course I get stopped out.
Any major news:
UK manufacturing PMI 51.2 vs 51.3 forecast. Slight miss on forecast, though expanding & was 49.1 previously.
US manufacturing PMI was a beat at 51.3 vs forecast 50.9, so a strong reading across the pond.
Tue
Trades:
SUP broke through lower level with volume, want to see break through top level. Earnings are due any day so that could be the catalyst, hesitant to get in before they are released, even though they put out an in line TU.
Earnings results:
CRWD – CrowdStrike has only just gone on to watchlist, so first time looking at earnings. Incredibly strong, with 33% rev & 8460% EPS. Very strong guidance as well. All looks solid and setting up near a resistance level for stage two continuation. Market liked the results, up 11% next day.
Wed
Earnings results:
LULU – I didn’t think these results were good at all, but the market thinks differently, I think probably on a valuation basis. Rev only 10% & EPS only 11%, both declining & guidance for further decline. No longer passes checklist, so can’t buy if I wanted to at the moment. No growth in stores QoQ, still 711. Internatinal growing well though.
Any major news:
UK services PMI in line with forecasts at 52.9, so growing well.
US services PMI also in line at 54.8
UK composite PMI higher than forecast at 53.0 vs 52.8.
US market especially performing well today.
Thur
Trades:
Sold BVXP – hit stop at 4,210p. Hasn’t been performing well for a few months now & is below the 150MA. Took an 11% loss. It no longer fits my strategy and scores poorly on the new checklist, so not surprising that it failed.
Buy ISRG – 15 shares @ $411, for a 5% position. It broke through yesterday with volume, though I couldn’t tell the volume until near the end of day. Strong hammer candle today so buyers are supporting the price, which is a strong sign. Got in for the mid price of yesterday, so as good as entering then, but with some more info. Entered for trade so set 25% profit goal at $515 & an 8% stop at $378.
Any major news:
ECB rate decision. They cut rates for first time in 5 years by a quarter point to 3.75%. Comes as a result of inflation reducing to 2.6% across the Eurozone. Hasn’t had any effect on UK markets, I assume it was already priced in as it was well telegraphed.
“Most economists still expected two further rate cuts by the end of the year, but markets only price one to two more moves. This is a big change compared with the start of the year when over five rate cuts were seen in 2024. The Bank of England (BoE) is poised to align closely with the ECB’s rate action and has its next meeting in two weeks.”
Fri
Quiet day generally for the stocks I follow, not much going on.
Any major news:
US unemplyment rate higher than expected at 4.0% vs 3.9%
Weekly wrap
Trades made:
Buy Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) – 15 @ $411 (£4,864).
Sold Bioventix (BVXP) – 42 @ 4205p for an 11.1% loss (-£220)
Best themes & subsectors. General market trend:
As mentioned earlier individual US healthcare stocks are setting up well. Their sub sectors are yet to break out but most are in a short term up trend. Keep an eye on as they could turn if the sub sectors fall back.
The tech theme in general is taking a bit of a breather, general sideways action for the past month or so. Looks to be just a break before continuing the up trend, all still above the 150MA.
Aerospace & defense extremely strong, as well as sea & sky cargo.
Financials theme still looking strong, though not many stocks I like in these sectors.
Thoughts on strategy, anything else:
The past couple of weeks I’m seeing a lot of US healthcare stocks setting up, though most of the healthcare sub sectors are sideways (yellow). I’m allowing entries, recently ISRG & LNTH but keeping a close eye on it. Will be interesting to see if my strategy is a leading indicator of a wider theme setting up, or if I should be following the sub sectors more. No healthcare subsectors are in down trends, if they were I wouldn’t enter.
Really not seeing many UK stocks setting up well with my process currently. A few I’m holding are flirting with their stops & I got stopped out of BVXP this week, which is strange considering US healthcare is performing well. I do have a fair few UK stocks on watchlist now, some I missed the breaks on, but a few are setting up nicely. Would be nice to have a few more strong UK stocks. There’s definitely a lot of UK stocks running at the moment, but they don’t pass the checklist. I do think if I’d had this system a year ago I probably wouldn’t be saying the same thing, as I’d already be in W7L, AT. & CRN. So just timing I think for now & allowing the system to run.
Looking to next week
Stocks setting up the best:
I’m in Portugal for a golf holiday for the week, so I’ll only be checking infrequently. As such I’m only going to flag the absolute best opportunites.
UK:
SOLI – Been watching for a couple of weeks now, enter if breaks through high with volume.
SUP – Same as above, very similar set ups.
AQX – Right on resistance level, has been going sideways in a very tight range for around six weeks now. Classic phase two continuation.
US:
BRBR – Still bouncing along under resistance. Forming a wedge and getting narrower. Keep an eye out for the break.
FIX – Much the same as BRBR though more of a box formation. Keep an eye out for the break.
MEDP – Another healthcare stock setting up well, nice tight trading range.
CRWD – New to the watchlist, just had strong results & sitting just below resistance. High chance of a break this week I think.
LRCX – Same as last week, sitting just below resistance & tightening up.
MU – Has been just breaking through resistance the past couple of weeks, but without volume and not continuing the run. Have raised line to high point, wait for volume, but don’t enter if it doesn’t arrive, more than likely it won’t work out without the volume.
Upcoming earnings:
UK – WISE
US – None, which is nice considering I’m on holiday
Upcoming news events:
Wednesday – US core CPI YoY in the morning, followed by FED interest rate decision in the evening.
Game plan:
I’ll be away for the week, out and about for most of the day so I can’t guarantee I’ll spot moves etc. Will set stops with my broker so I don’t miss any sells I should be making. Apart from that I’ll try and check my watchlist a couple of times a day & buy / sell as needed. In Portugal so no time difference which will make things easier.